Guineas Paddock Notes
My blog put Carlton House up as a Classic contender and his work has been outstanding including over the weekend where he had Ryan Moore praying the Derby was this week. He is now down to 6/1 for Epsom and will take a deal of beating in the Dante. Dermot Weld’s profile in the Racing Post on Sunday led with Notable Graduate and he confirmed the Irish Derby/St Leger route.
Frankel had racing fans searching for new superlatives when producing a unique display of speed to take the Guineas. It was truly awesome.
However the news that Frankel will miss the Derby is devastating. I cannot believe that connections would miss the chance to show the world what he can truly achieve. Given the way he murdered the Guineas field for toe it was on prima facie evidence all too obvious that he might be kept to shorter trips. However it would be folly to think that this is now the only style of running that Frankel can perform. It needs to borne in mind that his runs in the Royal Lodge, the Dewhurst and the Greenham were to some extent held up off the pace. I had believed connections would definitely run him in the Derby and though he would have obviously raced prominently, for all the reasons I gave in my blog on him before Christmas I believe he would stay and win. Even if a stalking horse was put in the field that horse would not have had the speed to get to the front with Frankel around. Epsom suits front runners and At First Sight gave a career best in the race last year. Many others spring to mind. Going back over the years having speed to burn never stopped horses like Sir Ivor, Nijinsky, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard getting 12 furlongs.
Sending him to the St James Palace will prove nothing. Putting him back in trip will also add nothing to our knowledge of the horse. Sprinters are mainly risen handicappers or failed classic aspirants. Frankel’s sectionals on Saturday were quicker than for Tangerine Trees in the Palace House.
However to win the Derby would have cemented Frankel’s status as eternally legendary. Possibly greater than Secretariat, Ribot, Nijinsky and any other of the greats you care to mention.
I really cannot remember when I was so gutted. After all the years of following the game I am absolutely distraught. Totally crestfallen.
Of the others in the Guineas field Casamento looked to have done really well and can give some good performances this term over middle distances and Pathfork appeared to have strengthened. Roderick O’Connor has not grown over the Winter. Happy Today and Loving Spirit are going the right way and can improve.
Native Ruler has always been a favourite of mine and was on my short list for the Derby two years ago. He was the most backward in condition before the Jockey Club Stakes but retains all his class. He could have a mighty season. Campanologist was on good terms and can win a few pots abroad. Indian Days had come on since Newbury but had to concede the penalty.
Seal Rock will improve a deal for his win in the 6f handicap and can be aimed at the big prize money sprint handicaps. In the Newmarket Stakes Cai Shen is thriving but got stopped at a crucial stage and could not get the required momentum into the dip. I will back him to reverse the form with the winner should they meet again.
Brian Meehan’s team have yet to hit form and Zain Shamardal is the one to take from the 8f handicap. Group One entries may yet be fulfilled.
There was nothing outstanding in the 1,000 Guineas field. Hooray has not grown in the interim and went too fast. Those following got swallowed up by those racing from off the pace. Take out the pacemaker and the result could have been different. Havant is a strong sort and might be the best Oaks candidate from the Sunday runners.
I am not sure if Robert Cowell has got to the bottom of Lui Rei yet and he can figure this season.
At Ascot on the Wednesday Magic City was the pick for the 2yo race and can improve for the experience.
Flood Plain is the one to take from the Fillies Mile. She is much better than the bare form suggests. The favourite Hezmah was short to post and may appreciate better ground.
Brian Meehan’s City Leader and Aim To Prosper will do better when the stable hits form.
Even with a penalty Libranno was disappointing and is surely better than this.
