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Monday 30 September 2013

Newmarket Autumn Notes

Three days of superb weather and perfect fast racing ground, together with excellent cards ensured British Racing at its best. There seemed to be no discernible bias in the draw with the wind minimal.

Thursday:       
Plenty of future staying types in the 8f maiden. Kings Land and Rainbow Rock were noticeably backward and should come on the most for the run.
Astonishing absolutely floated to post and came back in a similarly impressive fashion. A joy to watch. None of the paddock wallahs liked Phiz but I think she might have a motor. She drifted like a barge in the betting market and ran accordingly. She could prefer more give.
There was money for Championship in the Tattersall Stakes but he needed the run after his lay off.
Sabor A Triunfo failed to get home over 2 miles and the filly had Group One form on the All Weather in Chile. She is with Ed Dunlop who has a superb track record with fillies and mares.
Ladyship ran a career best and is on top of her game. She could be in line for more Black Type.

Friday:
Soft Falling Rain impressed at Newbury and was sharper for the run. He is worth a crack at the Queen Elizabeth.
Rizeena was very much on her toes and did not convince as before. Chriselliam had done well.
Baarez looks a three year old in the making and being by Kentucky Derby second - Hard Spun - will always be worth noting on the All Weather. If he were mine I would point him at the Kentucky Derby. Gothic is a big lengthy sort typically favoured by Highclere. Very much having a kind introduction, he pleased connections no end. Ganges was the most backward and ran well despite. He will improve accordingly.
Morpheus was heavily backed but needed the race.

Saturday:
Berkshire has grown a deal and seemed more like a 4yo never mind a 3yo. He ran green and was ‘climbing’ in the race. He has a ‘wall eye’ and does not look the full shilling. Temperament will always be a factor and I remain to be convinced.
Vorda is a handy well made sort who should handle the tight Breeders Cup track no problem. I would need to see her next Spring before I commit for the Guineas.
Joyeuse looked to be going the right way at Salisbury but pulled here and failed to show. Disappointing.
I put up Sky Lantern for the 1,000 Guineas in the Spring and she has been a joy to follow. She looked great despite going a bit in her coat. Having run so well at Ascot at the Royal Meeting, she must surely go for the Champion Stakes.
The question of horses going in their coat is one open to debate. The inference is that once horses start to get their winter coat in the autumn they must inevitably start to lose their form. Briefly in my view, if they look well I still want to be with them even if they are getting their new coat. If they look dull then no.
Elusive Kate looked great but disappointed again. She has been very much underrated, having won a Group One at 2, 3 and 4 years of age. Apart from Bosra Sham I cannot think of any other fillies to have done so in recent times. One for the Stats Boys. If you can think of any others, please let me know.

Tuesday 10 September 2013

Racing Value An Incredible 51% ROI This Season

Last week I reported how a horse had let down Racing Value for a huge 275/1 treble despite looking all over the winner.
So what happens is the same horse – Hi Filwah - runs a few days later – last Friday as it happens.
My mate rings me up. “I see that dog of yours is running today”
“ Dog?? Its Evens with Corals. Care for an Even Monkey? I enquire”
“ You can have a Grand if you like”. “No Says I. I don’t want your better half giving me grief when it wins (she's a lovely girl, far too good for him and I would hate to upset her)”
Anyway, Hi Filwah is never out of second gear to win in a canter and rub salt into the wounds. That 275 Points would have Changed Lives I assure you.
Even worse, as Racing Value Clients will testify, all week we keep get getting chinned - more than going 10 Rounds with Mike Tyson.
On Tuesday James Doyle comes off the rail and goes the scenic route round West Sussex before dropping his hands and costing us the Place Single and Treble on Waterclock and 18 Points.
Thanks James, Thanks a Lot !!! Want a job with Prince Khaled?
Then, even more horses join the the Next Time Up Club – Horses I tip that get beat and then win next time up. I tipped up Dragon City at 25/1 EW and see it finish tailed off last. It goes in last week 7/2>9/4. I am too embarrassed to put it up again.
Furthermore, one of the few times we have gone 10 Points Win this season was on La Collina to win a 4 runner race at 5/1 at Naas. I saw the filly at Newmarket before the Sun Chariot and knew she was still capable. She then ran a great race over 7 furlongs in the Gladness Stakes on her first run back in the Spring. She could not get past a 33/1 shot when we punt her that day at Naas where nothing has won since.
On Saturday she takes the Group One Matron Stakes at 33/1 beating the best Fillies in training. I am stunned.
All week we are backing Richard Hannon horses and watch them run below par. I ring my mate in the yard only for him to tell me that that the vaccinations they had the previous week have knocked the youngsters sideways.
We then lump on Figure of Speech at Kempton on the Saturday – only to see the Hannon trained Brown Sugar turn in a career best and beat my darling a short head at 6/1 !! It costs Racing Value Clients 42 Points.
Never mind, my mate in Newmarket who is a Jockey's Agent confirms that a horse I have been keeping an eye on will go in at Wolver in the evening. Glanely cops for Racing Value Clients at 8/1>5/1. Aye Aye !!

Any way, you can't keep a Good Team down and we Bomb Bet365 (and others) with Quiz Mistress at 10/1 on Tuesday to cop 60 Points and keep Racing Value an unbelievable 51% in Profit this Flat Season. That despite a myriad of knock backs.
Alex Bird, the great Professional Punter was happy with 5% Profit on Turnover.
We are doing Ten Times that at Racing Value !!!!
Don't just Watch our Results. Join Us !!!!